Tuesday, March 16, 2010
An algorithm for existential abduction
The first part of existential abduction involves generating ill-defined elements of a space of possible explanations of a phenomenon. One should proceed as follows: Generate theories that seem most plausible. Keep generating theories until some function of the marginal plausibility of the next theory and the marginal cost to generating the next theory (cost is in units of time) are equal. This assumes that plausibility can be monetized (as time can easily be monetized) and that people are able to think of theories in descending order of likelihood.